Mr Trump’s victory
I’ve commented on so many sites since the American election result, its mad, so I decided to write my view of Mr Trump’s win in order to kick start my blog. This follows nine months of inertia on my part plus its just taken me about three more weeks to finish the entry.
Mr. Trump’s victory does have implications for Syria so I believe I’m permitted to do this.
A short history of the Democrat-Republican Party
The response to Mr Trump’s election win is really peculiar. If you were from another planet it would be easy to believe that the Republican Party had either never held power before or that a victory for Mr. Trump would cause republicanism to fall apart at the seams, neither, of course, is true. The party was formed in 1856 and since, has won 23 out of 38 elections against the democrats.
I don’t wish to write a long history of the American political system so suffice to say both parties originated from one entity known as the Democratic-Republican Party, which took power in 1801 under Thomas Jefferson. Throughout the 1800s alliances changed until the republicans won the 1860 election under Abraham Lincoln.
By this time America ostensibly was free of British rule, though what was to become the Democratic Party, threw in its lot, for a time with the Whig Party that originated in Britain. There were two important factors that consolidated the split between the republicans and the democrats; slavery and the pending civil war. Interestingly it was the Republican party, which took a stance against slavery.
There were religious differences too as the democrats tended to derive from the more mainstream religions such as catholicism or Lutheran Protestantism while republicans tended towards the more morally inclined Methodist, Presbyterian and Congregationalist religions.
Shock Horror & mass hysteria in the western world; will Mr Trump’s win see the withdrawal of western backed mercenaries in Syria?
The Republican Party has won again resulting in demonstrations across the U.S., just as many people in the middle east are holding their breath. Most people are under the impression that America rules the world, though after my research of the last few years, I’m not at all convinced, which is why I am critical of Britain and refer to it and its cohorts. I do concede however that regardless of who makes the decisions, what is indisputable and indefensible is that America behaves like a school yard bully in its wilful destruction of all who opposes its ideology.
I say this despite an awareness that Russia is doing its fair share of bombing at present but Islamism is far more of a threat to the USSR than to America. This is particularly in the light of its exacerbation in the 1970s when Britain and America used mercenaries to break up the USSR as it existed under communist rule.
Mr Trump’s pending policy to deport illegal immigrants from America coincides nicely with that of the United Nations. The U.N. recently did a deal with Afghanistan whereby many migrants will be returned there from parts of Europe. It is rumoured that the same is true of Syria, that the regime will be ”allowed” to remain in power so that the refugees can return home. Methinks the destabilisation programme has gone so far that the west can no longer cope with the consequences.
There is a concensus among the Syrian displaced that they would return home if it were possible. It is very likely that the regime will protect their right to return but will be powerless to restore the economy to the point it was at prior to the war without substantial foreign investment. Germany is certainly waiting in the wings and Russia too I expect but Syria will have to capitalise and I know it was moving in that direction prior to the invasion.
I just heard my first interview with Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad today and though she is sincere, strong and courageous she is an investment banker and a guaranteed supporter of capitalism. Syrian people are no different to anyone else and wouldn’t be averse to a rise in their standard of living. Still hopefully the war has taught the Assad family not to trust Britain, where the first lady grew up. It beggars belief how Britain nurtured the Syrian Brotherhood when the Assads lived here but they did.
If Mr Trump is to be believed he intends to withdraw armaments from the Middle East, if he does so then many people would return home. Their safety would need to be guaranteed and their economies regenerated, which is unlikely without said investment.
Despite the mass hysteria to Mr Trump’s turn of phrase I doubt that identity politics holds any interest for him but he is right in the thick of the monopoly game judging by his considerable wealth. On the other hand despite the fervour of those who support Trump because there is now hope for a withdrawal of western troops from Syria, president al-Assad has his reservations, wise as the republican administration does have a long term investment in prolonging strife in the middle east.
The democrats plainly have a similar investment but during the last eight years it has got ridiculous and Russia has been drawn into the Syrian war. President al-Assad was pushed into asking it to intervene as the west refused to withdraw their mercenary forces plainly because the oil wealth was flowing free for a couple of years.
Identity politics is highly compatible with neo-liberalism and at the risk of being conspiratorial its the perfect time to rejuvenate the debate through mainstream media as it obscures other debates. For all the rhetoric about black lives mattering and the rest of the emphasis on identity politics, Mr Obama has not managed to gain the respect of black Americans on the estates, since there has been riot after riot including that in Ferguson. Bonny Greer, in her play of that name, presented an interesting analysis, whereby black Americans are polarised between the old revolutionary doctrine of Malcolm X and the new doctrine of Obama supported by the black middle classes. Time will tell as to which will prevail.
Iraq, the Kurds and the onslaught on Mosul, a comment I put on an article on ‘Friends of Syria’ site comparing the situation in Halab with that in Mosul
For the people of Iraq it is a different story as its been too long, The Kurdish population has broken away with Britain’s help. The notional Kurdistan has always been a vision for Britain as it provides a power base for them in Northern Iraq.
There is also a clear Sunni/Shia split in Iraq now and the Shia government was imposed by Britain. The north of Syria could separate, particularly in the East and became annexed to the Iraqi Kurdish region but the can of worms this would open is frightening.
The European idealists who currently support a Kurdish homeland and suggest it would be a utopia completely underestimate the antipathy between the Kurdish and the Arabic peoples, and the lack of Kurdish homogeneity. Please do not be fooled by mosul as the Kurdish, despite recent hostilities with the mercenaries who they traded with a couple of years ago, are helping britain not the Shia forces.
Mosul is a disgrace, its a continuation of the oil war and trust me the residents there will not welcome a victory by Britain and cohorts. The oil merchants were derisive from 2003 and before, they knew the west did not want to help them. Not rocket science as the propaganda had, from 1990, hinged on ridding Iraq of a minority ruling class. Mosul was a rich and powerful region and fearful of the minority Islamist Shia government that Britain and co were about to impose.
The Shia/Sunni split didn’t prevail under Arab nationalism but as a result of their concerns the Mosul oil merchants invited al-Qaida (broad terms) to help them preserve their power and oil wealth.
Halab is a different scenario, no oil wealth but of considerable interest to Turkey, a key ally to the west as it is handy for bombing raids on Syria and Iraq. There is further cause for concern, which is that support for the doctrine of the Syrian Brotherhood was cultivated in the North of Syria through the 1980s and 1990s (that is why the late president Hafez al-Assad clamped down on civil liberties there). The spread of the doctrine was done with help from the British government who appear to support it in Syria and Britain. This is manifest as support for the Muslim Association of Britain (MAB) goes from strength to strength.
The British government sent millions of pounds to the Syrian Brothers with freed Quantanamo Bay prisoner Muezzim Begg. His wife is Palestinian but her family was given refuge in Syria. When quizzed about its involvement, the government replied that the situation is complicated but does not deny its involvement. Food for thought as when President al-Assad wins in parts of Syria the problem will continue in other parts, it not all about getting rid of the west, mind you it will help.